從波峰到破位：一段關於比特幣BTC的投資交易體悟
從波峰到破位：一段關於比特幣BTC的投資交易體悟
過去這段時間，比特幣BTC 的走勢像一場情緒與紀律的考驗。從年初的強勢創高，到 10 月後連續數週的破位下跌，這段旅程不只讓我重新審視市場週期，也逼著我再次回到一個核心問題：投資，是情緒的修行，還是策略的修煉？
這一輪操作裡，我做了一件過去的自己可能不會做的事──在強勢行情中逐步減少我在多年之前的投資倉位，在市場樂觀時選擇冷靜，在初跌時果斷轉向。 起初從 11萬5千美金 上方開始分批出清，最後在行情轉弱後建立比特幣BTC合約空單，並設定止損與止盈。很幸運地，多段空單都如期到位，甚至在 9萬 附近提前達成了大部分獲利目標。
但這並不是「預測得準」，而是我深刻感受到：能否活下來，往往不是因為看對未來，而是因為你願意承認自己可能看錯。
BTC 在跌破 10萬4千、10萬整、再到 9萬 的過程中，不少人依舊堅持「長期一定漲」，也有人在恐慌中急著抄底。然而從技術面到情緒面，市場給出的訊號非常一致：
— 上升趨勢中斷
— 量能失衡
— 空方掌控節奏
— 反彈皆屬死貓彈（dead cat bounce）
我也在這次行情裡體悟到一件事：價格不是我們的敵人，固執才是。
當空單分批止盈後，我知道行情還沒有走完。大周期的結構指向更深的支撐區，而真正的買點，不是在下跌途中接飛刀，而是在市場投降、情緒極端、結構完成時出現。於是，我把剩餘的少量空單止盈下移，並耐心等待下一次真正的「價值密度高」的位置。
有人問我：「你如何判斷？靠技術還是靠直覺？」
我想，真正成熟的交易，是技能 + 嚴謹 + 多次被市場教訓後的智慧：
趨勢對了就順勢，而不是猜頂猜底
該停利時停利，不貪心
該止損時止損，不猶豫
該等待時等待，不急於進場
投資不是戰場，而是心性的照鏡。行情越波動，越能看見自己的欲望、恐懼與執著。這一次，我從波峰到破位的交易體驗裡看到：真正的高手不是贏得快，而是輸得少；不是抓住所有行情，而是抓住屬於自己的行情。
接下來，我依舊會保持耐心。市場仍可能繼續震盪，但真正的底部往往是在所有人都不想再談論 BTC 時悄悄到來。而我願意等，等那個能夠長期持有、風險與報酬匹配的買點。
投資是一段旅程，每一筆交易都是一堂課。希望這段經驗，也能讓你在市場的起伏中找到屬於自己的節奏。
—— Vince 文思
EFM 財商思維空間 · The Market Edge
From Peaks to Breakdown: Reflections on My Recent BTC Trades
Over the past few months, Bitcoin’s price action has felt like a test of both strategy and emotional discipline. From the strong rally earlier in the year to the sharp multi-week breakdown after October, this journey has forced me to re-examine market cycles—and more importantly, revisit a core question:
Is investing an emotional practice, or a strategic one?
In this recent round of trading, I did something my past self might never have done: I started trimming positions during strength, stayed calm when the market was euphoric, and turned decisively bearish at the first signs of structural weakness.
Starting from above 115K, I gradually reduced my long exposure. When momentum shifted, I opened short positions with clear stop-loss and take-profit levels. Fortunately, most of those shorts hit their targets smoothly—many even earlier than expected as BTC dropped toward the 90K area.
But this wasn’t about “predicting correctly.”It was the realization that survival in the market usually depends not on being right, but on accepting that you might be wrong.
As BTC broke below 104K, then 100K, and eventually 90K, many continued insisting that “it will rise long-term,” while others rushed to bottom-fish out of fear. Yet both technically and emotionally, the market was signaling one clear message:
— The uptrend had broken
— Volume structure deteriorated
— Bears were in control
— Every rebound was just a dead cat bounce
Through this volatility, I learned something important:
Price is not the enemy. Stubbornness is.
After most of my shorts took profit, I knew the move wasn’t finished. The larger market structure still pointed toward deeper support zones. A real buying opportunity doesn’t appear in the middle of a fall—it appears when the market capitulates, when sentiment collapses, and when the structure forms a complete cycle.
So I lowered the remaining take-profit levels on my small short exposure and shifted into patience mode, waiting for the next moment when value density becomes truly high.
Someone asked me, “How do you know what to do? Is it technical analysis or intuition?”
I believe mature trading is a combination of skill, discipline, and the wisdom earned from being humbled by the market many times:
Follow the trend—don’t try to guess tops or bottoms.
Take profit when it’s time—don’t get greedy.
Cut losses when necessary—don’t hesitate.
Wait when required—don’t rush into trades.
Investing is not a battlefield; it is a mirror.The more volatile the market becomes, the more clearly we see our desires, fears, and attachments.
Through this experience—from the peak to the breakdown—I’ve come to understand:
Great traders don’t win fast. They lose less.They don’t capture every move. They capture the moves that belong to them.
Looking ahead, I will continue to stay patient. The market may remain choppy, but true bottoms rarely form when everyone is still talking about BTC. They form quietly, when most people no longer care.
And I am willing to wait—for a level where long-term conviction aligns with risk and reward.
Investing is a journey, and every trade is a lesson.I hope this experience helps you find your own rhythm amid the market’s ups and downs.
— VinceEFM Financial Intelligence Space · Market Edge