聖誕節前的疲弱訊號：紐西蘭房市仍在盤整期——投資者 vs 自住買家「策略對照表」
在進入聖誕假期前，紐西蘭最新房市數據釋放出一個清晰訊號，想了解投資者 vs 自住買家「策略對照表」請瀏覽全文。
01 11 月房市：需求再度轉弱，出乎市場預期
11 月住宅成交量（季調後）下跌 4.8%，完全回吐了 10 月的反彈幅度，這也是自 2024 年 6 月以來首次出現年度成交量下滑。
這個結果令人意外，因為：
RBNZ 在 10 月曾「破局式」降息 50bp
7 Views
top of page
The Market Edge
Public·6 members
從波峰到破位：一段關於比特幣BTC的投資交易體悟
從波峰到破位：一段關於比特幣BTC的投資交易體悟
過去這段時間，比特幣BTC 的走勢像一場情緒與紀律的考驗。從年初的強勢創高，到 10 月後連續數週的破位下跌，這段旅程不只讓我重新審視市場週期，也逼著我再次回到一個核心問題：投資，是情緒的修行，還是策略的修煉？
這一輪操作裡，我做了一件過去的自己可能不會做的事──在強勢行情中逐步減少我在多年之前的投資倉位，在市場樂觀時選擇冷靜，在初跌時果斷轉向。 起初從 11萬5千美金 上方開始分批出清，最後在行情轉弱後建立比特幣BTC合約空單，並設定止損與止盈。很幸運地，多段空單都如期到位，甚至在 9萬 附近提前達成了大部分獲利目標。
但這並不是「預測得準」，而是我深刻感受到：能否活下來，往往不是因為看對未來，而是因為你願意承認自己可能看錯。
BTC 在跌破 10萬4千、10萬整、再到 9萬 的過程中，不少人依舊堅持「長期一定漲」，也有人在恐慌中急著抄底。然而從技術面到情緒面，市場給出的訊號非常一致：
4 Views
A reflective space to observe market movements without the noise. Notes from the Market Edge invites members to document insights, patterns, and emotional responses to real-world events—transforming observation into mindful understanding, not speculation.
這是一個遠離塵囂、靜心觀察市場動態的空間。 「市場前沿筆記」邀請會員記錄對真實世界事件的洞察、模式和情緒反應，將觀察轉化為深思熟慮的理解，而非投機。
32 Views
bottom of page
From Peaks to Breakdown: Reflections on My Recent BTC Trades
Over the past few months, Bitcoin’s price action has felt like a test of both strategy and emotional discipline. From the strong rally earlier in the year to the sharp multi-week breakdown after October, this journey has forced me to re-examine market cycles—and more importantly, revisit a core question:
Is investing an emotional practice, or a strategic one?
In this recent round of trading, I did something my past self might never have done: I started trimming positions during strength, stayed calm when the market was euphoric, and turned decisively bearish at the first signs of structural weakness.
Starting from above 115K, I gradually reduced my long exposure. When momentum shifted, I opened short positions with clear stop-loss and take-profit levels. Fortunately, most of those shorts hit their targets smoothly—many even earlier than expected as BTC dropped toward the 90K area.
But this wasn’t about “predicting correctly.”It was the realization that survival in the market usually depends not on being right, but on accepting that you might be wrong.
As BTC broke below 104K, then 100K, and eventually 90K, many continued insisting that “it will rise long-term,” while others rushed to bottom-fish out of fear. Yet both technically and emotionally, the market was signaling one clear message:
— The uptrend had broken
— Volume structure deteriorated
— Bears were in control
— Every rebound was just a dead cat bounce
Through this volatility, I learned something important:
Price is not the enemy. Stubbornness is.
After most of my shorts took profit, I knew the move wasn’t finished. The larger market structure still pointed toward deeper support zones. A real buying opportunity doesn’t appear in the middle of a fall—it appears when the market capitulates, when sentiment collapses, and when the structure forms a complete cycle.
So I lowered the remaining take-profit levels on my small short exposure and shifted into patience mode, waiting for the next moment when value density becomes truly high.
Someone asked me, “How do you know what to do? Is it technical analysis or intuition?”
I believe mature trading is a combination of skill, discipline, and the wisdom earned from being humbled by the market many times:
Follow the trend—don’t try to guess tops or bottoms.
Take profit when it’s time—don’t get greedy.
Cut losses when necessary—don’t hesitate.
Wait when required—don’t rush into trades.
Investing is not a battlefield; it is a mirror.The more volatile the market becomes, the more clearly we see our desires, fears, and attachments.
Through this experience—from the peak to the breakdown—I’ve come to understand:
Great traders don’t win fast. They lose less.They don’t capture every move. They capture the moves that belong to them.
Looking ahead, I will continue to stay patient. The market may remain choppy, but true bottoms rarely form when everyone is still talking about BTC. They form quietly, when most people no longer care.
And I am willing to wait—for a level where long-term conviction aligns with risk and reward.
Investing is a journey, and every trade is a lesson.I hope this experience helps you find your own rhythm amid the market’s ups and downs.
— VinceEFM Financial Intelligence Space · Market Edge